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Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis (2005)

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Abstract

This paper uses VAR techniques to investigate the potential for forming monetary unions in Eastern and Southern Africa. All countries in the sample are members of various regional economic organizations. Some of the organizations have a monetary union as an immediate objective whereas others consider it as a possibility in the more distant future. Our objective is to sort out which countries are suitable candidates for a monetary union based on the synchronicity of demand and supply disturbances. Although economic shocks are not highly correlated across the entire region, we tentatively identify three sub regional clusters of countries that may benefit from a currency union.

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  • Steven K. Buigut & Neven Valev, 2005. "Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis (2005)," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0504, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0504
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    File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2017/09/ispwp-0504.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie, 2022. "On the economic desirability of the West African monetary union: Would one currency fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2019. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 6, pages 195-242, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Hatice Erkekoglu, 2020. "Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 495-517, December.
    4. Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
    5. Raji, Rahman Olanrewaju, 2012. "REAL Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance of WEST AFRICAN MONETARY ZONE:Implications for macroeconomic unionisation," MPRA Paper 37385, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: Structural Vector Analysis;

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