IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aug/augsbe/0258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Zykluskonforme Krise oder Strukturbruch? - Zeitreiheneigenschaften des deutschen Werbemarktes

Author

Abstract

The current crisis of the media industry is a consequence of poor revenues from the advertising market. Actually, advertising revenues are contributing more than 60% to the total revenues of German mass media, thus dominating the economic performance of media firms. This empirical contribution seeks to understand the cyclical behavior pattern of the advertising market and to test if the recent slump in advertising demand follows this cyclical pattern. In a first step, spectral analysis is used to identify potential cycle lengths. In a second step, the explanatory power of cycles for advertising demand is evaluated by inserting the most important cycle lengths into a regression model. All estimations are based on yearly data of the German advertising market from 1960 to 2003, differentiated by five types of media. The results underline a strong influence of overlapping cycles for the advertising market, with advertising in magazines being the only exception. There is no statistical support for the hypothesis of a structural break during the recent slump in advertising demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Guenter Lang, 2004. "Zykluskonforme Krise oder Strukturbruch? - Zeitreiheneigenschaften des deutschen Werbemarktes," Discussion Paper Series 258, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/files/71199/258.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2133 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Working Papers hal-03458584, HAL.
    3. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guenter Lang, 2005. "Werbemarkt Fernsehen: Zur Eignung der Spektralanalyse als Prognoseinstrument," Discussion Paper Series 274, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    2. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Efectos calendario sobre la producción industrial en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 11241, Banco de la Republica.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2302 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jérôme Creel & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2003. "Inflation Divergence and Public Deficits In an Monetary Union," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01065062, HAL.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2302 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Advertising; Media; Spectral Analysis; Cycle; Structural Break; Forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • M37 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Advertising
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:0258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Simone Raab-Kratzmeier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivaugde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.