Assessing the future energy demand of Greece's transportation sector

The terrestrial transportation sector, including passengers, buses, and trains, is becoming an increasingly complex field in terms of decarbonization, requiring science-driven, data-based solutions to address its energy and emissions challenges effectively. Greece exemplifies these challenges, as its transportation sector has been slow in transitioning towards decarbonization, despite the country's commitments. Factors such as dependence on conventional fuels, infrastructure inefficiencies, and policy gaps exacerbate the situation, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive modeling and assessment tools. This research presents a detailed assessment of Greece's transportation sector, focusing on energy demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, per use and per fuel type. Leveraging the Low-Emission-Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, we analyze the sector's fuel mix across various uses at a national scale, marking, to the best of our knowledge, the first such effort for Greece. The model is tested under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios: SSP1 (sustainability-focused), SSP2 (moderate progress), and SSP5 (fossil-fueled development), projected to 2050. Our findings reveal critical insights into how different decarbonization pathways could reshape Greece's transportation sector. The key outcomes discussed include variations in energy consumption, emission trajectories, and the feasibility of achieving national and EU decarbonization targets under diverse socio-economic conditions. This work aims to support policymakers in designing robust, forward-looking transportation strategies aligned with sustainability objectives.