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Understanding the International Rise & Fall of inflation since 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Mai Chi Dao

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Daniel Leigh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Prachi Mishra

    (Ashoka University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks––deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai Chi Dao & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra, 2024. "Understanding the International Rise & Fall of inflation since 2020," Working Papers 119, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ash:wpaper:119
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    File URL: https://dp.ashoka.edu.in/ash/wpaper/paper119_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Federico Ravenna & Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "Welfare-Based Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: A Linear-Quadratic Framework," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 130-162, April.
    2. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    3. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.
    2. Liza Archanskaia & Plamen Nikolov & Wouter Simons & Lukas Vogel, 2024. "Navigating shocks: the performance of the eu corporate sector from the pandemic to the energy crisis," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    core inflation;

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