The Short- and Long-run Impact of COVID-19 on Neighborhood Residential Turnover and Spatial Sorting in London, UK

Existing evidence on residential migration has focused on patterns of leaving high-density central cities and moving into peri-urban areas after COVID-19. However, the discussion on variations in these patterns between neighborhoods within the central city has been largely neglected. We investigate whether the role of neighborhood quality to residential turnover has changed and how this quality affects the destination neighborhood choices of movers over different COVID-19 phases. In doing so, we use the monthly information of inter-neighborhood migration from more than 11.61 million mobile phone users in UK (25% market share) including more than 224.265 million pairs of movers between April 2019 and October 2022 in UK, which is linked to the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) of 4,835 neighborhoods in London. We first report a significant increase in out-migration from London neighborhoods to commuting belt areas or even further after COVID-19. Next, we demonstrate that more deprived neighborhoods in London experienced a higher turnover by losing their residents to non-London and other London neighborhoods after the COVID-19 outbreak. This trend was strongest during COVID-19 but continued even when the COVID-19 faded out. Finally, we find a stronger sorting pattern by the quality of origin neighborhoods especially after the new normal started. Movers from more deprived London neighborhoods show a lower probability of upward mobility to both London and non-London destinations, relative to pre-COVID-19 periods. These findings on within-city variations in residential turnover and spatial sorting have important implications for residents' wellbeing and potential spatial segregation.