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Regional early warning systems and prediction models for Austria and Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Fernandez
  • Martin Prinz
  • Wolfgang Brunauer
  • Karin Wagner

Abstract

Although price indices are an important tool for the observation of real estate developments, they lack the potential of indicating possible market exaggerations or “bubble formation”. Several research approaches are commonly used to determine such deviations from market equilibria, among others there are "asset pricing models" and "supply-demand models". We develop a framework of early warning systems for Austria and Germany based on scientifically sound approaches. We explain specific challenges such as finding proper instruments for supply and demand modelling, the treatment of submarkets with sparse or unreliable data, and the application in long-time prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Fernandez & Martin Prinz & Wolfgang Brunauer & Karin Wagner, 2024. "Regional early warning systems and prediction models for Austria and Germany," ERES eres2024-173, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-173
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    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2024-173
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing method; Early warning systems; Interest elasticity; Supply elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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