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The effects of fertility rates and dependency rates on housing prices

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  • Chien-Wen Peng

Abstract

Dependency rate is an indicator of demographic structure which usually be used to measure the pressure on productive population. A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a government's expenditure is on health, social security and education, which are most used by the youngest and the oldest in a population. Many previous studies found that dependency rate was the main determinant of household saving or wealth accumulation. This study tries further to clarify whether demographic changes, especially dependency rate, affecting housing prices. The empirical results reveal that house price is cointegrated with fertility rate and old dependency rate, respectively. In the long run, an increase of fertility rate increases house price. However, an increase of old dependency rate reduces house price. The expected demographic change in 2015 would be an important signal of housing price change.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien-Wen Peng, 2014. "The effects of fertility rates and dependency rates on housing prices," ERES eres2014_163, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2014_163
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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