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Forecasting Portfolio Risk in Normal and Stressed Markets

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  • Vineer Bhansali
  • Mark B. Wise

Abstract

The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated values. For instance, in times of severe market stress, one would expect with certainty to see the correlation of yield levels and credit spreads go to -1, even though historical estimates will miss this region of correlation. This event might lead to realized portfolio risk profile substantially different from what was initially estimated. The purpose of this paper is to explore the correlation driven effects on fixed income portfolio risks. To achieve this, we propose a methodology to estimate portfolio risks in both normal and stressed times using confidence weighted forecast correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Vineer Bhansali & Mark B. Wise, 2001. "Forecasting Portfolio Risk in Normal and Stressed Markets," Papers nlin/0108022, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:nlin/0108022
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Muniz & Matthias Ehrhardt & Michael Günther, 2021. "Approximating Correlation Matrices Using Stochastic Lie Group Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, January.
    2. Alejandro Reveiz‐Herault, 2016. "An Active Asset Management Investment Process for Drawdown‐Averse Investors," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 85-96, January.
    3. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
    4. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    5. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools," Papers cond-mat/0203166, arXiv.org.
    6. Alessio Caldarera & Celso Brunetti, 2005. "Asset Prices and Asset Correlations in Illiquid Markets," 2005 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Alejandro Reveiz Herault, 2008. "The Factor-Portfolios Approach to Asset Management using Genetic Algorithms," Borradores de Economia 511, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. So, Mike K.P. & Wong, Jerry & Asai, Manabu, 2013. "Stress testing correlation matrices for risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 310-322.
    9. Yu, Philip L.H. & Li, W.K. & Ng, F.C., 2014. "Formulating hypothetical scenarios in correlation stress testing via a Bayesian framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 17-33.

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