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The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?

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  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Janusz Miskiewicz
  • Michele Sanglier

Abstract

Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP data is hereby examined. The conclusion about a power law distribution of recession periods seems better though the matter is not entirely settled. The case of prosperity duration is also studied and is found to follow a power law. Universal but also non universal features between recession and prosperity cases are emphasized. Considering that the economy is basically a bistable (recession/prosperity) system we may derive a characteristic (de)stabilisation time.

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  • Marcel Ausloos & Janusz Miskiewicz & Michele Sanglier, 2004. "The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?," Papers cond-mat/0403143, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0403143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Miśkiewicz, J. & Ausloos, M., 2004. "A logistic map approach to economic cycles. (I). The best adapted companies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 206-214.
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    3. Ausloos, Marcel & Clippe, Paulette & Pȩkalski, Andrzej, 2003. "Simple model for the dynamics of correlations in the evolution of economic entities under varying economic conditions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 330-337.
    4. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
    5. Aoki, Masanao, 1998. "Simple Model Of Asymmetrical Business Cycles: Interactive Dynamics Of A Large Number Of Agents With Discrete Choices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 427-442, December.
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    7. Ausloos, M & Clippe, P & Pekalski, A, 2004. "Model of macroeconomic evolution in stable regionally dependent economic fields," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 269-287.
    8. Ausloos, Marcel & Clippe, Paulette & Pȩkalski, Andrzej, 2004. "Evolution of economic entities under heterogeneous political/environmental conditions within a Bak–Sneppen-like dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 394-402.
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