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The optimum mix of storage and backup in a highly renewable, highly reliable European electricity grid

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  • J. Dunsmore
  • L. M. Arthur
  • R. S. Kemp

Abstract

We estimate the variability of solar and wind energy generation potential in Europe over a 43 year period between 1980-2022 with the MERRA-2 reanalysis datasets. We compare the estimated supply potential to hourly demand data from 36 European countries to calculate the reliability of a highly renewable electricity grid in Europe. We find that in cost-optimised scenarios with onshore wind, solar and storage, but no natural gas, reliably meeting the last 1% of demand represents 36% of the entire system cost. Including small amounts of dispatchable natural gas drastically reduces the cost of a renewable, highly reliable grid: overall system costs fall by 31% when just 1% of total generation is permitted to come from natural gas. Large renewable overbuild factors (greater than $\times$4 peak demand) are required to meet modern grid reliability standards in all scenarios, and wind, rather than solar, dominates the generation mix.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Dunsmore & L. M. Arthur & R. S. Kemp, 2025. "The optimum mix of storage and backup in a highly renewable, highly reliable European electricity grid," Papers 2503.23604, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2503.23604
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