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Time-Varying Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions

Author

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  • Annika Camehl

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Tomasz Wo'zniak

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks within the Markov process regimes. We implement the selection through a multinomial prior distribution over these patterns, which is a spike'n'slab prior for individual parameters. By combining a Markov-switching structural matrix with heteroskedastic structural shocks following a stochastic volatility process, the model enables shock identification through time-varying volatility within a regime. As a result, the exclusion restrictions become over-identifying, and their selection is driven by the signal from the data. Our empirical application shows that data support time variation in the US monetary policy shock identification. We also verify that time-varying volatility identifies the monetary policy shock within the regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Annika Camehl & Tomasz Wo'zniak, 2025. "Time-Varying Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2502.19659, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.19659
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.19659
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