IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2502.12141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Araujo
  • Vitor Possebom

Abstract

The FAO-GAEZ crop productivity data are widely used in Economics. However, the existence of measurement error is rarely recognized in the empirical literature. We propose a novel method to partially identify the effect of agricultural productivity, deriving bounds that allow for nonclassical measurement error by leveraging two proxies. These bounds exhaust all the information contained in the first two moments of the data. We reevaluate three influential studies, documenting that measurement error matters and that the impact of agricultural productivity on economic outcomes may be smaller than previously reported. Our methodology has broad applications in empirical research involving mismeasured variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Araujo & Vitor Possebom, 2025. "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies," Papers 2502.12141, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.12141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.12141
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Fiszbein, 2022. "Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from the United States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-43, April.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Adam M. Rosen, 2013. "Intersection Bounds: Estimation and Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(2), pages 667-737, March.
    3. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    4. Tasso Adamopoulos & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Geography and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Plot-Level Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1629-1653.
    5. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    6. Jennifer Alix-García & Daniel L. Millimet, 2023. "Remotely Incorrect? Accounting for Nonclassical Measurement Error in Satellite Data on Deforestation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(5), pages 1335-1367.
    7. Mario F Carillo, 2021. "Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 566-597.
    8. Clement Imbert & Marlon Seror & Yifan Zhang & Yanos Zylberberg, 2022. "Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1885-1914, June.
    9. Pellegrina, Heitor S., 2022. "Trade, productivity, and the spatial organization of agriculture: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    11. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 261-289, August.
    12. Oded Galor & Ömer Özak, 2016. "The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3064-3103, October.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Paola Giuliano & Nathan Nunn, 2011. "Fertility and the Plough," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 499-503, May.
    14. Oeindrila Dube & Omar García-Ponce & Kevin Thom, 2016. "From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1181-1224.
    15. Douglas Gollin & Casper Worm Hansen & Asger Mose Wingender, 2021. "Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2344-2384.
    16. Darren Lubotsky & Martin Wittenberg, 2006. "Interpretation of Regressions with Multiple Proxies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 549-562, August.
    17. Susanne M. Schennach, 2016. "Recent Advances in the Measurement Error Literature," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 341-377, October.
    18. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    19. Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2024. "The deforestation effects of trade and agricultural productivity in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    20. Dani Rodrik & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 50-55, May.
    21. Tasso Adamopoulos & Loren Brandt & Jessica Leight & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1261-1282, May.
    22. Paula Bustos & Gabriel Garber & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2020. "Capital Accumulation and Structural Transformation [“Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 1037-1094.
    23. Joram Mayshar & Omer Moav & Luigi Pascali, 2022. "The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(4), pages 1091-1144.
    24. Hu, Yingyao, 2017. "The econometrics of unobservables: Applications of measurement error models in empirical industrial organization and labor economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 154-168.
    25. Eliana La Ferrara & Alberto Chong & Suzanne Duryea, 2012. "Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 1-31, October.
    26. Jeanet Sinding Bentzen & Nicolai Kaarsen & Asger Moll Wingender, 2017. "Irrigation and Autocracy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-53.
    27. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Mark Koyama & Youhong Lin & Tuan-Hwee Sng, 2023. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1173-1231.
    28. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Bustos, Paula & Castro-Vincenzi, Juan & Monras, Joan, 2018. "Industrialization without Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Sebastian Sotelo, 2020. "Domestic Trade Frictions and Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(7), pages 2690-2738.
    31. Magne Mogstad & Andres Santos & Alexander Torgovitsky, 2018. "Using Instrumental Variables for Inference About Policy Relevant Treatment Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1589-1619, September.
    32. Vitor Possebom & Flavio Riva, 2022. "Probability of Causation with Sample Selection: A Reanalysis of the Impacts of J\'ovenes en Acci\'on on Formality," Papers 2210.01938, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    33. Marcelo Sant'Anna, 2024. "How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 202-216, January.
    34. Oeindrila Dube & Omar García-Ponce & Kevin Thom, 2016. "From Maize To Haze: Agricultural Shocks And The Growth Of The Mexican Drug Sector," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1181-1224, October.
    35. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 891-936.
    36. Carlos A. Flores & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2013. "Partial Identification of Local Average Treatment Effects With an Invalid Instrument," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 534-545, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Rafael & Borges, Bruna & Costa, Francisco J M & Santos, Kelly, 2024. "Seeds of Disparity: the Gender Land Divide from Brazil's Agricultural Transition," SocArXiv dk4bc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    2. Heitor Pellegrina & Sebastian Sotelo, 2019. "Migration, Specialization and Trade: Evidence from the Brazilian March to the West," 2019 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Kammas, Pantelis & Sakalis, Argyris & Sarantides, Vassilis, 2021. "Pudding, plague and education: trade and human capital formation in an agrarian economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112206, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Araujo, Rafael & Borges, Bruna & Costa, Francisco J M & Santos, Kelly, 2024. "Seeds of Disparity: the Gender Land Divide from Brazil's Agricultural Transition," SocArXiv dk4bc, Center for Open Science.
    5. Torben Dall Schmidt & Peter Sandholt Jensen & Amber Naz, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and economic development: the contribution of clover to structural transformation in Denmark," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 387-426, December.
    6. Bruno Morando, 2024. "Testing the GAEZ agronomic model in the fields:Evidence from Uganda," Economics Department Working Paper Series n320-24.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    7. Huang, Kaixing, 2024. "The Green Revolution, grain imports, and income divergence in the developing world," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Vitor Possebom, 2021. "Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification," Papers 2106.00536, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    10. Gáfaro, Margarita & Pellegrina, Heitor S., 2022. "Trade, farmers’ heterogeneity, and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2024. "The deforestation effects of trade and agricultural productivity in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Huang, Kaixing, 2020. "Agricultural Productivity and Income Divergence: Evidence from the Green Revolution," MPRA Paper 108357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jun 2021.
    14. Le, Kien, 2020. "Land use restrictions, misallocation in agriculture, and aggregate productivity in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Cai, Yang & Zhu, Jiong, 2024. "Cooperative culture and the birth of modern enterprises in China: Evidence from the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    16. Araujo, Rafael & Costa, Francisco J M & Sant'Anna, Marcelo, 2020. "Efficient Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon: Estimates from a Dynamic Model," SocArXiv 8yfr7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    17. Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco J M & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2022. "The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil," SocArXiv hy3np_v1, Center for Open Science.
    18. Bharadwaj, Prashant & Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata & Mirza, Rinchan Ali, 2020. "The Green revolution and infant mortality in India," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Júlio Vicente Cateia & Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Terciane Sabadini Carvalho & Luc Savard, 2023. "Funding schemes for infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation in Africa: Evidence from Guinea‐Bissau," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1505-1529, August.
    20. Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2018. "GIS for Credible Identification Strategies in Economics Research," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(2), pages 327-338.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.12141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.