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Impact of the Availability of ChatGPT on Software Development: A Synthetic Difference in Differences Estimation using GitHub Data

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  • Alexander Quispe
  • Rodrigo Grijalba

Abstract

Advancements in Artificial Intelligence, particularly with ChatGPT, have significantly impacted software development. Utilizing novel data from GitHub Innovation Graph, we hypothesize that ChatGPT enhances software production efficiency. Utilizing natural experiments where some governments banned ChatGPT, we employ Difference-in-Differences (DID), Synthetic Control (SC), and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) methods to estimate its effects. Our findings indicate a significant positive impact on the number of git pushes, repositories, and unique developers per 100,000 people, particularly for high-level, general purpose, and shell scripting languages. These results suggest that AI tools like ChatGPT can substantially boost developer productivity, though further analysis is needed to address potential downsides such as low quality code and privacy concerns.

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  • Alexander Quispe & Rodrigo Grijalba, 2024. "Impact of the Availability of ChatGPT on Software Development: A Synthetic Difference in Differences Estimation using GitHub Data," Papers 2406.11046, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.11046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kreitmeir, David & Raschky, Paul Anton, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of Censoring Digital Technology - Evidence from Italy's ChatGPT Ban," SocArXiv v3cgs, Center for Open Science.
    2. Saggu, Aman & Ante, Lennart, 2023. "The influence of ChatGPT on artificial intelligence related crypto assets: Evidence from a synthetic control analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    3. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    4. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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