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Monetary Policy & Stock Market

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  • Kian Tehranian

Abstract

This paper assesses the link between central bank's policy rate, inflation rate and output gap through Taylor rule equation in both United States and United Kingdom from 1990 to 2020. Also, it analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset price volatility using an augmented Taylor rule. According to the literature, there has been a discussion about the utility of using asset prices to evaluate central bank monetary policy decisions. First, I derive the equation coefficients and examine the stability of the relationship over the shocking period. Test the model with actual data to see its robustness. I add asset price to the equation in the next step, and then test the relationship by Normality, Newey-West, and GMM estimator tests. Lastly, I conduct comparison between USA and UK results to find out which country's policy decisions can be explained better through Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Kian Tehranian, 2023. "Monetary Policy & Stock Market," Papers 2305.13930, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2305.13930
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bordo, Michael & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    4. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    6. John C. Williams, 2003. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
    7. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 35-42.
    8. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
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