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The Tech Decoupling

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  • Monika Baloda

Abstract

Financial market volatility is a crucial factor for investment planning, option pricing, and financial market regulation, and technology is widely recognized as a key driver of economic growth. In this project, we investigate the co-movement of technology and non-technology sectors over the last two decades. We identify a decoupling phenomenon in the levels and volatility of the two sectors after 2015 and argue that this cannot be attributed to the COVID-19 shock. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the technology sector serves as a leading indicator of growth for the rest of the economy. Using ARIMA modeling and stationarity tests, we process time series data to test our hypotheses, finding that the technology sector follows an ARIMA(3,1,3) model, while the non-technology sector follows an ARIMA(2,1,4) model. Our analysis encompasses data wrangling, pre-processing, missing value treatment, and exploratory data analysis, and we discuss the merits and shortcomings of our work to aid in the interpretation of our results. Overall, our findings shed new light on the relationship between technology and economic growth. Our results can be used for understanding labor market fluctuations in the technology sector and investment planning assessments.

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  • Monika Baloda, 2023. "The Tech Decoupling," Papers 2304.00510, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2304.00510
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.00510
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    1. Andrew C. Harvey, 2020. "Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 517, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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