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Excess death rates for Republicans and Democrats during the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Jacob Wallace
  • Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
  • Jason Schwartz

Abstract

Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post-vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Wallace & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Jason Schwartz, 2022. "Excess death rates for Republicans and Democrats during the COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2209.10751, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.10751
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    Cited by:

    1. Lima, Everton E. C. Dr., 2022. "Municipal Brazilian electoral results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic," OSF Preprints pyjbk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Clemens, Jeffrey & Hoxie, Philip & Kearns, John & Veuger, Stan, 2023. "How did federal aid to states and localities affect testing and vaccine delivery?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Kevin Chen & Marta Wilson-Barthes & Jeffrey E. Harris & Omar Galárraga, 2023. "Incentivizing COVID-19 vaccination among racial/ethnic minority adults in the United States: $209 per dose could convince the hesitant," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Mortality Effects of Healthcare Supply Shocks: Evidence Using Linked Deaths and Electronic Health Records," NBER Working Papers 30553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hilary Silver & Rebecca Morris, 2023. "Homelessness, Politics, and Policy: Predicting Spatial Variation in COVID-19 Cases and Deaths," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-13, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General

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