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Trade Co-occurrence, Trade Flow Decomposition, and Conditional Order Imbalance in Equity Markets

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  • Yutong Lu
  • Gesine Reinert
  • Mihai Cucuringu

Abstract

The time proximity of high-frequency trades can contain a salient signal. In this paper, we propose a method to classify every trade, based on its proximity with other trades in the market within a short period of time, into five types. By means of a suitably defined normalized order imbalance associated to each type of trade, which we denote as conditional order imbalance (COI), we investigate the price impact of the decomposed trade flows. Our empirical findings indicate strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs. In terms of predictability, we document that associations with future returns are positive for COIs of trades which are isolated from trades of stocks other than themselves, and negative otherwise. Furthermore, trading strategies which we develop using COIs achieve conspicuous returns and Sharpe ratios, in an extensive experimental setup on a universe of 457 stocks using daily data for a period of four years.

Suggested Citation

  • Yutong Lu & Gesine Reinert & Mihai Cucuringu, 2022. "Trade Co-occurrence, Trade Flow Decomposition, and Conditional Order Imbalance in Equity Markets," Papers 2209.10334, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2209.10334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Goyal, Amit & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2016. "Buyers versus Sellers: Who Initiates Trades, and When?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1467-1490, October.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Albert S. Kyle & Hui Ou-Yang & Bin Wei, 2011. "A Model of Portfolio Delegation and Strategic Trading," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3778-3812.
    5. Zhang, Ting & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Order imbalances and market efficiency: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 458-467.
    6. Chakravarty, Sugato & Jain, Pankaj & Upson, James & Wood, Robert, 2012. "Clean Sweep: Informed Trading through Intermarket Sweep Orders," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 415-435, April.
    7. Liyan Yang & Haoxiang Zhu, 2020. "Back-Running: Seeking and Hiding Fundamental Information in Order Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1484-1533.
    8. Yi Tang & Yilu Zhou & Marshall Hong, 2019. "News Co-Occurrences, Stock Return Correlations, and Portfolio Construction Implications," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Bailey, Warren & Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan Leung & Wang, Fenghua, 2009. "Stock returns, order imbalances, and commonality: Evidence on individual, institutional, and proprietary investors in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 9-19, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanci Zhang & Yutong Lu & Haitao Mao & Jiawei Huang & Cien Zhang & Xinyi Li & Rui Dai, 2023. "Company Competition Graph," Papers 2304.00323, arXiv.org.
    2. Yutong Lu & Gesine Reinert & Mihai Cucuringu, 2023. "Co-trading networks for modeling dynamic interdependency structures and estimating high-dimensional covariances in US equity markets," Papers 2302.09382, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

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