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Bitcoin Price Predictive Modeling Using Expert Correction

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  • Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Abstract

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko, 2022. "Bitcoin Price Predictive Modeling Using Expert Correction," Papers 2201.02729, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.02729
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.02729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    3. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2016. "What drives Bitcoin price?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 843-850.
    5. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2015. "Is Bitcoin Business Income Or Speculative Foolery? New Ideas Through An Improved Frequency Domain Analysis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-23.
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    8. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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