IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2109.07007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Empirical Content of Bayesianism

Author

Listed:
  • Pooya Molavi

Abstract

This paper characterizes the conditions under which the observed beliefs of a group of agents are consistent with Bayesian updating. Beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if they arise from the application of Bayes' rule given some subjective distribution for the state and the signals agents observe between periods. The paper's main finding is that beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if and only if the mean of the distribution of posteriors is uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to the prior. Furthermore, the paper shows that the existing results on the empirical content of Bayesianism rely on additional restrictions on permissible subjective distributions, such as the requirement that agents have correct beliefs about the distribution of signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Pooya Molavi, 2021. "The Empirical Content of Bayesianism," Papers 2109.07007, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.07007
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Brooks & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2022. "Information Hierarchies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2187-2214, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.