IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2107.09048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A New Attempt to Identify Long-term Precursors for Endogenous Financial Crises in the Market Correlation Structures

Author

Listed:
  • Anton J. Heckens
  • Thomas Guhr

Abstract

Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess systemic risks. Unfortunately, the very nature of financial markets, particularly the predominantly non-Markovian character as well as non-stationarity, make this challenge a formidable one, leaving little hope for fully fledged answers. Nevertheless, it is called for to collect pieces of evidence in a variety of observables to be assembled like the pieces of a puzzle that eventually might help to catch a glimpse of long-term indicators or precursors for large events - if at all in a statistical sense. Here, we present a new piece for this puzzle. We use the quasi-stationary market states which exist in the time evolution of the correlation structure in financial markets. Recently, we identified such market states relative to the collective motion of the market as a whole. We study their precursor properties in the US stock markets over 16 years, including two endogenous crises, the dot-com bubble burst and the pre-phase of the Lehman Brothers crash. We identify certain interesting features and critically discuss their suitability as indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton J. Heckens & Thomas Guhr, 2021. "A New Attempt to Identify Long-term Precursors for Endogenous Financial Crises in the Market Correlation Structures," Papers 2107.09048, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.09048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.09048
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Wand & Martin He{ss}ler & Oliver Kamps, 2022. "Identifying Dominant Industrial Sectors in Market States of the S&P 500 Financial Data," Papers 2208.14106, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    2. Martin He{ss}ler & Tobias Wand & Oliver Kamps, 2023. "Efficient Multi-Change Point Analysis to decode Economic Crisis Information from the S&P500 Mean Market Correlation," Papers 2308.00087, arXiv.org.
    3. Heckens, Anton J. & Guhr, Thomas, 2022. "New collectivity measures for financial covariances and correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    4. M. Mija'il Mart'inez-Ramos & Parisa Majari & Andres R. Cruz-Hern'andez & Hirdesh K. Pharasi & Manan Vyas, 2024. "Coarse graining correlation matrices according to macrostructures: Financial markets as a paradigm," Papers 2402.05364, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    5. Tobias Wand & Martin He{ss}ler & Oliver Kamps, 2023. "Memory Effects, Multiple Time Scales and Local Stability in Langevin Models of the S&P500 Market Correlation," Papers 2307.12744, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.09048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.