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Superiority of mild interventions against COVID-19 on public health and economic measures

Author

Listed:
  • Makoto Niwa
  • Yasushi Hara
  • Yusuke Matsuo
  • Hodaka Narita
  • Lim Yeongjoo
  • Shintaro Sengoku
  • Kota Kodama

Abstract

During the global spread of COVID-19, Japan has been among the top countries to maintain a relatively low number of infections, despite implementing limited institutional interventions. Using a Tokyo Metropolitan dataset, this study investigated how these limited intervention policies have affected public health and economic conditions in the COVID-19 context. A causal loop analysis suggested that there were risks to prematurely terminating such interventions. On the basis of this result and subsequent quantitative modelling, we found that the short-term effectiveness of a short-term pre-emptive stay-at-home request caused a resurgence in the number of positive cases, whereas an additional request provided a limited negative add-on effect for economic measures (e.g. the number of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) communications and restaurant visits). These findings suggest the superiority of a mild and continuous intervention as a long-term countermeasure under epidemic pressures when compared to strong intermittent interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Niwa & Yasushi Hara & Yusuke Matsuo & Hodaka Narita & Lim Yeongjoo & Shintaro Sengoku & Kota Kodama, 2021. "Superiority of mild interventions against COVID-19 on public health and economic measures," Papers 2103.14298, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2103.14298
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    Cited by:

    1. Natsuko Tabata & Mai Tsukada & Kozue Kubo & Yuri Inoue & Reiko Miroku & Fumihiko Odashima & Koichiro Shiratori & Takashi Sekiya & Shintaro Sengoku & Hideaki Shiroyama & Hiromichi Kimura, 2022. "Living Lab for Citizens’ Wellness: A Case of Maintaining and Improving a Healthy Diet under the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.

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