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Data-driven analysis of central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects drivers

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  • Toshiko Matsui
  • Daniel Perez

Abstract

In this paper, we use a variety of machine learning methods to quantify the extent to which economic and technological factors are predictive of the progression of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) within a country, using as our measure of this progression the CBDC project index (CBDCPI). We find that a financial development index is the most important feature for our model, followed by the GDP per capita and an index of the voice and accountability of the country's population. Our results are consistent with previous qualitative research which finds that countries with a high degree of financial development or digital infrastructure have more developed CBDC projects. Further, we obtain robust results when predicting the CBDCPI at different points in time.

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  • Toshiko Matsui & Daniel Perez, 2021. "Data-driven analysis of central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects drivers," Papers 2102.11807, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.11807
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Tobin, 1987. "The case for preserving regulatory distinctions," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 167-205.
    2. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2020. "Tiered CBDC and the financial system," Working Paper Series 2351, European Central Bank.
    3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Daniel Sanches & Linda Schilling & Harald Uhlig, 2021. "Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking For All?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 225-242, July.
    4. Raphael A. Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Rise of the Central Bank Digital Currencies: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8655, CESifo.
    5. Davoodalhosseini, Seyed Mohammadreza, 2022. "Central bank digital currency and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Grym, Aleksi & Heikkinen, Päivi & Kauko, Karlo & Takala, Kari, 2017. "Central bank digital currency," BoF Economics Review 5/2017, Bank of Finland.
    7. Codruta Boar & Henry Holden & Amber Wadsworth, 2020. "Impending arrival - a sequel to the survey on central bank digital currency," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 107.
    8. Raphael Auer & Giulio Cornelli & Jon Frost, 2020. "Covid-19, cash, and the future of payments," BIS Bulletins 3, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ngo, Vu Minh & Van Nguyen, Phuc & Nguyen, Huan Huu & Thi Tram, Huong Xuan & Hoang, Long Cuu, 2023. "Governance and monetary policy impacts on public acceptance of CBDC adoption," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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