IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2008.08705.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reforming the State-Based Forward Guidance through Wage Growth Rate Threshold: Evidence from FRB/US Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Sudiksha Joshi

Abstract

I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the Evans Rule. Using time series analysis, I calibrated the thresholds of ECI wage growth and the employment to population ratio and investigated the relationship between other labor utilization variables. Then I imposed various shocks and constructed impulse response functions to contrast the paths of eight macroeconomic variables under three scenarios. The results suggest that under the wage growth rate scenario, the federal funds rate lift off earlier than under the current Evans Rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Sudiksha Joshi, 2020. "Reforming the State-Based Forward Guidance through Wage Growth Rate Threshold: Evidence from FRB/US Simulations," Papers 2008.08705, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.08705
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2019. "Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 421-426, May.
    3. Reifschneider, David L. & Roberts, John M., 2006. "Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 314-337, September.
    4. Williams, John C., 2014. "Policy rules in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 151-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Jakab, Zoltan & Lindé, Jesper, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies for the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Dupraz, Stéphane & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2024. "Make-up strategies with finite planning horizons but infinitely forward-looking asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Tadle, Raul Cruz, 2022. "FOMC minutes sentiments and their impact on financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    6. Herrada, Rafael & Pérez, Fernando & Montoro, Carlos & Castillo, Paul, 2020. "La comunicación de la política monetaria en los bancos centrales de América del Sur," Revista Moneda, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 181, pages 4-9.
    7. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    8. Pathberiya, Lasitha R.C., 2024. "Monetary policy rules and zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in a cost-channel economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    10. Bihari, Péter, 2015. "Odüsszeuszi utazás - az előretekintő iránymutatás tapasztalatai [An Odysseian journey - experience with forward guidance]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-766.
    11. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    13. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2020. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CARF F-Series CARF-F-482, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    15. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    16. Brubakk, Leif & ter Ellen, Saskia & Robstad, Ørjan & Xu, Hong, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of forward communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    17. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the expected duration of the zero lower bound in DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    18. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Picault, Matthieu & Raffestin, Louis, 2020. "The other side of forward guidance: Are central banks constrained by financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.