IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2006.06076.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Black to Negative: Embedded optionalities in commodities markets

Author

Listed:
  • Richard J. Martin
  • Aldous Birchall

Abstract

We address the modelling of commodities that are supposed to have positive price but, on account of a possible failure in the physical delivery mechanism, may turn out not to. This is done by explicitly incorporating a `delivery liability' option into the contract. As such it is a simple generalisation of the established Black model.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Martin & Aldous Birchall, 2020. "Black to Negative: Embedded optionalities in commodities markets," Papers 2006.06076, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.06076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06076
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Martin, 2021. "Design and analysis of momentum trading strategies," Papers 2101.01006, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiarella, Carl & Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2013. "Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 989-1000.
    2. Jilong Chen & Christian Ewald & Ruolan Ouyang & Sjur Westgaard & Xiaoxia Xiao, 2022. "Pricing commodity futures and determining risk premia in a three factor model with stochastic volatility: the case of Brent crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 29-46, June.
    3. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Jumps in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 55-70.
    5. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2015. "Commodity derivatives pricing with cointegration and stochastic covariances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 476-486.
    7. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    8. Hansen, Erwin & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2015. "Multinationals Stockpiling Cash: Exploring a Commodity Boom," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7006, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Liao Wang & David D. Yao, 2021. "Risk Hedging for Production Planning," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(6), pages 1825-1837, June.
    10. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    11. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2018. "Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 853-873, September.
    12. Erwin Hansen & Rodrigo Wagner, 2015. "Multinationals Stockpiling Cash: Exploring a Commodity Boom," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 89920, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
    14. Baum, Christopher F. & Zerilli, Paola & Chen, Liyuan, 2021. "Stochastic volatility, jumps and leverage in energy and stock markets: Evidence from high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Vrugt, Evert B., 2018. "Carry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 197-225.
      • Moskowitz, Tobias J & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert B., 2013. "Carry," CEPR Discussion Papers 9771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Guiotto, Paolo, 2022. "A note on the spot-forward parity under stochastic cost of carry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4141-4155, September.
    18. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    19. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    20. Nader Karimi & Hirbod Assa & Erfan Salavati & Hojatollah Adibi, 2023. "Calibration of Storage Model by Multi-Stage Statistical and Machine Learning Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1437-1455, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.06076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.