IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1912.00269.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk

Author

Listed:
  • Tommi Ekholm

Abstract

Forests will have two notable economic roles in the future: providing renewable raw material and storing carbon to mitigate climate change. The pricing of forest carbon leads to longer rotation times and consequently larger carbon stocks, but also exposes landowners to a greater risk of forest damage. This paper investigates optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk. I provide the optimality conditions for this problem and illustrate the setting with numerical calculations representing boreal forests under a range of carbon prices and damage probabilities. The relation between damage probability and carbon price towards the optimal rotation length is nearly linear, with carbon pricing having far greater impact. As such, increasing forest carbon stocks by lengthening rotations is an economically attractive method for climate change mitigation, despite the forest damage risk. Carbon pricing also increases land expectation value and reduces the economic risks of the landowner. The production possibility frontier under optimal rotation suggests that significantly larger forests carbon stocks are achievable, but imply lower harvests. However, forests' societally optimal role between these two activities is not yet clear-cut; but rests on the future development of relative prices between timber, carbon and other commodities dependent on land-use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommi Ekholm, 2019. "Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk," Papers 1912.00269, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1912.00269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1912.00269
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    2. Stéphane S. Couture & Arnaud A. Reynaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Post-Print hal-02651317, HAL.
    3. Roger Sedjo & Brent Sohngen, 2012. "Carbon Sequestration in Forests and Soils," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 127-144, August.
    4. Graeme Guthrie & Dinesh Kumareswaran, 2009. "Carbon Subsidies, Taxes and Optimal Forest Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 275-293, June.
    5. Rupert Seidl & Dominik Thom & Markus Kautz & Dario Martin-Benito & Mikko Peltoniemi & Giorgio Vacchiano & Jan Wild & Davide Ascoli & Michal Petr & Juha Honkaniemi & Manfred J. Lexer & Volodymyr Trotsi, 2017. "Forest disturbances under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 395-402, June.
    6. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
    7. Ekholm, Tommi, 2018. "Climatic Cost-benefit Analysis Under Uncertainty and Learning on Climate Sensitivity and Damages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 99-106.
    8. Xu, Ying & Amacher, Gregory S. & Sullivan, Jay, 2016. "Optimal forest management with sequential disturbances," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 106-122.
    9. Adam J. Daigneault & Mario J. Miranda & Brent Sohngen, 2010. "Optimal Forest Management with Carbon Sequestration Credits and Endogenous Fire Risk," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 155-172.
    10. Pohjola, J. & Valsta, L., 2007. "Carbon credits and management of Scots pine and Norway spruce stands in Finland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(7), pages 789-798, April.
    11. Ekholm, Tommi, 2016. "Optimal forest rotation age under efficient climate change mitigation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-68.
    12. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
    13. G. Cornelis van Kooten & Clark S. Binkley & Gregg Delcourt, 1995. "Effect of Carbon Taxes and Subsidies on Optimal Forest Rotation Age and Supply of Carbon Services," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(2), pages 365-374.
    14. Gregory S. Amacher & Arun S. Malik & Robert G. Haight, 2005. "Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire Prevention in Forest Management," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(2).
    15. Chladna, Zuzana, 2007. "Determination of optimal rotation period under stochastic wood and carbon prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(8), pages 1031-1045, May.
    16. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
    17. K. Pingoud & A.-L. Perälä & A. Pussinen, 2001. "Carbon dynamics in wood products," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 91-111, June.
    18. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 195-206, September.
    19. Riikka Siljander & Tommi Ekholm, 2018. "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 783-802, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ekholm, Tommi, 2020. "Optimal forest rotation under carbon pricing and forest damage risk," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    3. Susaeta, Andres & Chang, Sun Joseph & Carter, Douglas R. & Lal, Pankaj, 2014. "Economics of carbon sequestration under fluctuating economic environment, forest management and technological changes: An application to forest stands in the southern United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-64.
    4. Ekholm, Tommi, 2016. "Optimal forest rotation age under efficient climate change mitigation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-68.
    5. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Nghiem, Nhung, 2016. "Optimal forest rotation for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation by farm income levels," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 185-194.
    6. Luo, Li & Gao, Yuan & Regan, Courtney M. & Summers, David M. & Connor, Jeffery D. & O'Hehir, Jim & Meng, Li & Chow, Christopher W.K., 2024. "Emissions offset incentives, carbon storage and profit optimization for Australian timber plantations," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Patto, João V. & Rosa, Renato, 2022. "Adapting to frequent fires: Optimal forest management revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Tee, James & Scarpa, Riccardo & Marsh, Dan & Guthrie, Graeme, 2012. "Valuation of Carbon Forestry and the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Approach Using the Binomial Tree Method," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 123665, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Zhou, Mo, 2015. "Adapting sustainable forest management to climate policy uncertainty: A conceptual framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-74.
    10. Luis Diaz-Balteiro & David Martell & Carlos Romero & Andrés Weintraub, 2014. "The optimal rotation of a flammable forest stand when both carbon sequestration and timber are valued: a multi-criteria approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 375-387, June.
    11. O’Donoghue, Cathal & O’Fatharta, Eoin & Geoghegan, Cathal & Ryan, Mary, 2024. "Farmland afforestation: Forest optimal rotation ages across discrete optimisation objectives," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Yu, Zhihan & Ning, Zhuo & Chang, Wei-Yew & Chang, Sun Joseph & Yang, Hongqiang, 2023. "Optimal harvest decisions for the management of carbon sequestration forests under price uncertainty and risk preferences," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    13. James Tee & Riccardo Scarpa & Dan Marsh & Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 44-60.
    14. Charles Sims & David Aadland & David Finnoff & James Powell, 2013. "How Ecosystem Service Provision Can Increase Forest Mortality from Insect Outbreaks," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(1), pages 154-176.
    15. Al Abri, Ibtisam H. & Grogan, Kelly A. & Daigneault, Adam, 2017. "Optimal Forest Fire Management with Applications to Florida," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258568, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Sohngen, Brent & Tian, Xiaohui, 2016. "Global climate change impacts on forests and markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 18-26.
    17. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Dumollard, Gaspard, 2018. "Multiple-stand forest management under fire risk: Analytical characterization of stationary rotation ages and optimal carbon sequestration policy," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 146-154.
    19. Sohngen, Brent & Favero, Alice & Jin, Yufang & Huang, Yuhan, 2018. "Global cost estimates of forest climate mitigation with albedo: A new policy approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274307, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Lintunen, Jussi & Uusivuori, Jussi, 2014. "On The Economics of Forest Carbon: Renewable and Carbon Neutral But Not Emission Free," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 165755, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1912.00269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.