IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1905.05931.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What is the Minimal Systemic Risk in Financial Exposure Networks?

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Diem
  • Anton Pichler
  • Stefan Thurner

Abstract

Management of systemic risk in financial markets is traditionally associated with setting (higher) capital requirements for market participants. There are indications that while equity ratios have been increased massively since the financial crisis, systemic risk levels might not have lowered, but even increased. It has been shown that systemic risk is to a large extent related to the underlying network topology of financial exposures. A natural question arising is how much systemic risk can be eliminated by optimally rearranging these networks and without increasing capital requirements. Overlapping portfolios with minimized systemic risk which provide the same market functionality as empirical ones have been studied by [pichler2018]. Here we propose a similar method for direct exposure networks, and apply it to cross-sectional interbank loan networks, consisting of 10 quarterly observations of the Austrian interbank market. We show that the suggested framework rearranges the network topology, such that systemic risk is reduced by a factor of approximately 3.5, and leaves the relevant economic features of the optimized network and its agents unchanged. The presented optimization procedure is not intended to actually re-configure interbank markets, but to demonstrate the huge potential for systemic risk management through rearranging exposure networks, in contrast to increasing capital requirements that were shown to have only marginal effects on systemic risk [poledna2017]. Ways to actually incentivize a self-organized formation toward optimal network configurations were introduced in [thurner2013] and [poledna2016]. For regulatory policies concerning financial market stability the knowledge of minimal systemic risk for a given economic environment can serve as a benchmark for monitoring actual systemic risk in markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Diem & Anton Pichler & Stefan Thurner, 2019. "What is the Minimal Systemic Risk in Financial Exposure Networks?," Papers 1905.05931, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1905.05931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.05931
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    3. Edson Bastos Santos & Rama Cont, 2010. "The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk," Working Papers Series 219, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. Leduc, Matt V. & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Incentivizing resilience in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 44-66.
    6. León, C. & Berndsen, R.J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Financial Stability and Interacting Networks of Financial Institutions and Market Infrastructures," Other publications TiSEM 0de9add3-0338-4575-9c00-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    8. Ms. Sheri M. Markose, 2012. "Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives: A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax," IMF Working Papers 2012/282, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Adrian Alter & Ben R. Craig & Peter Raupach, 2015. "Centrality-Based Capital Allocations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 329-377, June.
    10. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    12. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    13. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    14. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    15. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Faia, Ester, 2017. "Bank networks: Contagion, systemic risk and prudential policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 164-188.
    16. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    18. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24, pages 62-78.
    21. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    22. Michael Boss & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Contagion Flow Through Banking Networks," Papers cond-mat/0403167, arXiv.org.
    23. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    24. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    25. Gauthier, Céline & Lehar, Alfred & Souissi, Moez, 2012. "Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 594-618.
    26. Preis, Tobias & Bardoscia, Marco & Caccioli, Fabio & Perotti, Juan Ignacio & Vivaldo, Gianna & Caldarelli, Guido, 2016. "Distress propagation in complex networks: the case of non-linear DebtRank," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68598, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    28. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    29. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    30. Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1599-1613, October.
    31. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    32. Matt V. Leduc & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1601.02156, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    33. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    34. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    35. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    36. Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Juan Ignacio Perotti & Gianna Vivaldo & Guido Caldarelli, 2016. "Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.
    37. Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Juan Ignacio Perotti & Gianna Vivaldo & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "Distress propagation in complex networks: the case of non-linear DebtRank," Papers 1512.04460, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    38. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    39. Stefan Thurner & Sebastian Poledna, 2013. "DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks," Papers 1301.6115, arXiv.org.
    40. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
    41. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    42. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Chao & Liu, Xiaoxing & Chen, Boyi & Li, Menyu, 2023. "Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Chao, Wang & Jing, Ma & Xiaoxing, Liu, 2023. "Optimizing systemic risk through credit network reconstruction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Pichler, Anton & Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Systemic risk-efficient asset allocations: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Amini, Hamed & Feinstein, Zachary, 2023. "Optimal network compression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1439-1455.
    5. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Abhijit Chakraborty & Tobias Reisch & Christian Diem & Pablo Astudillo-Estévez & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Tinic, Murat & Sensoy, Ahmet & Demir, Muge & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Broker Network Connectivity and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 104719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk in the global banking sector: A cross-quantilogram network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Shuyue Jin & Lei Song & Lei Shu & Qifeng Gao & Yu Chen, 2024. "Systemic risk in Chinese interbank lending networks: insights from short-term and long-term lending data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2539-2564, December.
    10. Raphael Auer & Bernhard Haslhofer & Stefan Kitzler & Pietro Saggese & Friedhelm Victor, 2024. "The technology of decentralized finance (DeFi)," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 55-95, March.
    11. Wang, Ze & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Sun, Qingru & Chen, Zhihua & Tang, Renwu & Di, Zengru, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk contribution of global stock markets: A dynamic tail risk network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. William Schueller & Christian Diem & Melanie Hinterplattner & Johannes Stangl & Beate Conrady & Markus Gerschberger & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Propagation of disruptions in supply networks of essential goods: A population-centered perspective of systemic risk," Papers 2201.13325, arXiv.org.
    13. Schuster, Hannah & Polleres, Axel & Wachs, Johannes, 2024. "Stress-testing road networks and access to medical care," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    14. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    15. Wang, Chao & Liu, Xiaoxing & He, Jianmin, 2022. "Does diversification promote systemic risk?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. Noemi Schmitt & Ivonne Schwartz & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Heterogeneous speculators and stock market dynamics: a simple agent-based computational model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1263-1282, October.
    17. Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Optimal Network Compression," Papers 2008.08733, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    18. Alessandro Ferracci & Giulio Cimini, 2021. "Systemic risk in interbank networks: disentangling balance sheets and network effects," Papers 2109.14360, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    19. Le, Richard & Ku, Hyejin, 2022. "Reducing systemic risk in a multi-layer network using reinforcement learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    20. Zdzislaw Burda & Malgorzata J. Krawczyk & Krzysztof Malarz & Malgorzata Snarska, 2021. "Wealth rheology," Papers 2105.08048, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    21. Ahn, Dohyun & Kim, Kyoung-Kuk & Kwon, Eunji, 2023. "Multivariate stress scenario selection in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    22. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    2. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Brinley Codd, Adam & Hill, John, 2017. "The decline of solvency contagion risk," Bank of England working papers 662, Bank of England.
    4. Alessandro Ferracci & Giulio Cimini, 2021. "Systemic risk in interbank networks: disentangling balance sheets and network effects," Papers 2109.14360, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    5. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    6. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    7. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    8. Paolo Bartesaghi & Michele Benzi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Ernesto Estrada, 2019. "Risk-dependent centrality in economic and financial networks," Papers 1907.07908, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    9. Paolo Barucca & Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Marco D'Errico & Gabriele Visentin & Guido Caldarelli & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Network valuation in financial systems," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1181-1204, October.
    10. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    11. Spiros Bougheas & Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk: A financial equilibrium networks approach," Discussion Papers 2022/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    12. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    13. Bardoscia, Marco & Ka-Kay Pang, Raymond, 2023. "Ring-fencing in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 1046, Bank of England.
    14. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Le, Richard & Ku, Hyejin, 2022. "Reducing systemic risk in a multi-layer network using reinforcement learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    17. Aikman, David & Beale, Daniel & Brinley-Codd, Adam & Covi, Giovanni & Hüser, Anne‑Caroline & Lepore, Caterina, 2023. "Macroprudential stress‑test models: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1037, Bank of England.
    18. Deng, Yang & Zhang, Ziqing & Zhu, Li, 2021. "A model-based index for systemic risk contribution measurement in financial networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 35-48.
    19. Yongli Li & Guanghe Liu & Paolo Pin, 2018. "Network-based risk measurements for interbank systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Pichler, Anton & Poledna, Sebastian & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Systemic risk-efficient asset allocations: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1905.05931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.