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A New Stock Market Valuation Measure with Applications to Retirement Planning

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  • Andrey Sarantsev

Abstract

We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is modeled as an autoregression of order 1 with linear trend 4.5\% and Gaussian innovations. Detrending gives us a new valuation measure. This autoregression is significantly different from the random walk. Therefore, our results disprove the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Therefore, long-run total returns equal long-run earnings growth plus 4.5\%. We apply results to retirement planning. A withdrawal process governs how a retired capital owner withdraws a certain fraction of wealth annually. The fraction can vary from year to year. We study the long-term behavior of such processes.

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  • Andrey Sarantsev, 2019. "A New Stock Market Valuation Measure with Applications to Retirement Planning," Papers 1905.04603, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1905.04603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    2. Christos Ioannidis & David A. Peel & Michael J. Peel, 2003. "The Time Series Properties of Financial Ratios: Lev Revisited," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 699-714, June.
    3. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    4. Christos Ioannidis & David A. Peel & Michael J. Peel, 2003. "The Time Series Properties of Financial Ratios: Lev Revisited," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 699-714, June.
    5. Ou, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1989. "Accounting Measurement, Price Earnings Ratio, And The Information-Content Of Security Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 111-144.
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