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Black was right: Price is within a factor 2 of Value

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Listed:
  • J. P. Bouchaud
  • S. Ciliberti
  • Y. Lemp'eri`ere
  • A. Majewski
  • P. Seager
  • K. Sin Ronia

Abstract

We provide further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). Our results bolster Black's intuition that prices tend to be off roughly by a factor of 2, and take years to equilibrate. The story behind these results fits well with the existence of two types of behaviour in financial markets: "chartists", who act as trend followers, and "fundamentalists", who set in when the price is clearly out of line. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance of financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • J. P. Bouchaud & S. Ciliberti & Y. Lemp'eri`ere & A. Majewski & P. Seager & K. Sin Ronia, 2017. "Black was right: Price is within a factor 2 of Value," Papers 1711.04717, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1711.04717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Garcin, 2018. "Hurst exponents and delampertized fractional Brownian motions," Working Papers hal-01919754, HAL.
    2. Majewski, Adam A. & Ciliberti, Stefano & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2020. "Co-existence of trend and value in financial markets: Estimating an extended Chiarella model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Moran, José & Fosset, Antoine & Kirman, Alan & Benzaquen, Michael, 2021. "From ants to fishing vessels: a simple model for herding and exploitation of finite resources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence T'oth & Michael Benzaquen, 2021. "Do fundamentals shape the price response? A critical assessment of linear impact models," Papers 2112.04245, arXiv.org.
    5. Maarten P. Scholl & Anisoara Calinescu & J. Doyne Farmer, 2021. "How market ecology explains market malfunction," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(26), pages 2015574118-, June.
    6. Schmidhuber, Christof, 2022. "Financial markets and the phase transition between water and steam," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    7. Christof Schmidhuber, 2024. "Critical Dynamics of Random Surfaces," Papers 2409.05547, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    8. Noemi Schmitt & Ivonne Schwartz & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Heterogeneous speculators and stock market dynamics: a simple agent-based computational model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1263-1282, October.
    9. Matthieu Garcin, 2019. "Hurst Exponents And Delampertized Fractional Brownian Motions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. "The Self-Organized Criticality Paradigm in Economics & Finance," Papers 2407.10284, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    11. Michele Vodret & Bence Tóth & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Michael Benzaquen, 2022. "Do fundamentals shape the price response? A critical assessment of linear impact models," Post-Print hal-03797375, HAL.
    12. Adam Majewski & Stefano Ciliberti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2018. "Co-existence of Trend and Value in Financial Markets: Estimating an Extended Chiarella Model," Papers 1807.11751, arXiv.org.
    13. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2023. "Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 599-625, July.

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