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Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management

Author

Listed:
  • C'edric Join
  • Michel Fliess
  • Cyril Voyant
  • Fr'ed'eric Chaxel

Abstract

Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient and easily implementable. Numerous computer simulations are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • C'edric Join & Michel Fliess & Cyril Voyant & Fr'ed'eric Chaxel, 2016. "Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management," Papers 1602.06295, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.06295
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06295
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    Cited by:

    1. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    2. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Darras, Christophe & Fouilloy, Alexis & Motte, Fabrice, 2017. "Uncertainties in global radiation time series forecasting using machine learning: The multilayer perceptron case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 248-257.
    3. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join & Cyril Voyant, 2018. "Prediction bands for solar energy: New short-term time series forecasting techniques," Post-Print hal-01736518, HAL.
    4. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2017. "Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 199-208.

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