IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1508.02473.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bridging AIC and BIC: a new criterion for autoregression

Author

Listed:
  • Jie Ding
  • Vahid Tarokh
  • Yuhong Yang

Abstract

We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. When the data is generated from a finite order autoregression, the Bayesian information criterion is known to be consistent, and so is the new criterion. When the true order is infinity or suitably high with respect to the sample size, the Akaike information criterion is known to be efficient in the sense that its prediction performance is asymptotically equivalent to the best offered by the candidate models; in this case, the new criterion behaves in a similar manner. Different from the two classical criteria, the proposed criterion adaptively achieves either consistency or efficiency depending on the underlying true model. In practice where the observed time series is given without any prior information about the model specification, the proposed order selection criterion is more flexible and robust compared with classical approaches. Numerical results are presented demonstrating the adaptivity of the proposed technique when applied to various datasets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Ding & Vahid Tarokh & Yuhong Yang, 2015. "Bridging AIC and BIC: a new criterion for autoregression," Papers 1508.02473, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.02473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.02473
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    2. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    3. Marco Morales, 2010. "Lag order selection for an optimal autoregressive covariance matrix estimator," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 739-748.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    2. Tobias Duemmler & Daniel Eissrich & Stephan Kienle, 2012. "Alignment to the eurosystem: some findings from a VAR approach for selected CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 37-46.
    3. Rodrigues, Luciano & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2017. "Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-331.
    4. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    5. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    8. Muhammad Kashif & Thomas Leirvik, 2022. "The MAX Effect in an Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Norway," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    10. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    11. Rodrigo Hakim das Neves, 2020. "Bitcoin pricing: impact of attractiveness variables," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Asghar, Zahid & Abid, Irum, 2007. "Performance of lag length selection criteria in three different situations," MPRA Paper 40042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    14. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1991. "Do Exchange Auctions Work? An Examination of the Bolivian Experience," NBER Working Papers 3683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.
    17. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim & Huay-Huay Lee, 2008. "Linearity and Stationarity of South Asian Real Exchange Rates," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(5), pages 48-58, September.
    19. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    20. Hélène Huber, 2006. "Decomposing the causes of health care use inequalities: a micro-simulations approach," Working Papers hal-04138520, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1508.02473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.