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Modeling FX market activity around macroeconomic news: a Hawkes process approach

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  • Marcello Rambaldi
  • Paris Pennesi
  • Fabrizio Lillo

Abstract

We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is able to capture the increase of trading activity after the news, both when the news has a sizeable effect on volatility and when this effect is negligible, either because the news in not important or because the announcement is in line with the forecast by analysts. We extend the model by considering non-causal effects, due to the fact that the existence of the news (but not its content) is known by the market before the announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Rambaldi & Paris Pennesi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2014. "Modeling FX market activity around macroeconomic news: a Hawkes process approach," Papers 1405.6047, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1405.6047
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    2. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean--François Muzy, 2016. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: application to high-frequency order book dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1179-1201, August.
    3. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2014. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: Application to high frequency order book modelling," Papers 1412.7096, arXiv.org.
    4. Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Giacomo Bormetti & Michele Treccani & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets," Papers 1505.00704, arXiv.org.

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