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A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE - 1973 CE

Author

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  • Andrey Korotayev

    (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • Artemy Malkov

    (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

We propose an extremely simple mathematical model that is shown to be able to account for more than 99 per cent of all the variation in economic and demographic macrodynamics of the world for almost two millennia of its history. This appears to suggest a novel approach to the formation of the general theory of social macroevolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Korotayev & Artemy Malkov, 2012. "A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE - 1973 CE," Papers 1206.0496, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1206.0496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chesnais, Jean-Claude, 1992. "The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286592.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    3. Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 517-549.
    4. Simon Kuznets, 1960. "Population Change and Aggregate Output," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 324-351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Two millenia of growth in a couple of equations
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-02 19:54:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron W. NIELSEN, 2016. "Interpretations of Hyperbolic Growth," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 594-626, December.

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