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Models for the impact of all order book events

Author

Listed:
  • Zoltan Eisler
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
  • Julien Kockelkoren

Abstract

We propose a general framework to describe the impact of different events in the order book, that generalizes previous work on the impact of market orders. Two different modeling routes can be considered, which are equivalent when only market orders are taken into account. One model posits that each event type has a temporary impact (TIM). The "history dependent impact" model (HDIM), on the other hand, assumes that only price-changing events have a direct impact, itself modulated by the past history of all events through an "influence matrix" that measures how much, on average, an event of a given type affects the immediate impact of a price-changing event of the same sign in the future. We find in particular that aggressive market orders tend to reduce the impact of further aggressive market orders of the same sign (and increase the impact of aggressive market orders of opposite sign). We discuss the relative merits of TIM and HDIM, in particular concerning their ability to reproduce accurately the price diffusion pattern. We find that in spite of theoretical inconsistencies, TIM appears to fare better than HDIM when compared to empirical data. We ascribe this paradox to an uncontrolled approximation used to calibrate HDIMs, calling for further work on this issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltan Eisler & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren, 2011. "Models for the impact of all order book events," Papers 1107.3364, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1107.3364
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1107.3364
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    Cited by:

    1. Tóth, Bence & Palit, Imon & Lillo, Fabrizio & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "Why is equity order flow so persistent?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 218-239.
    2. Zoltan Eisler & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2016. "Price impact without order book: A study of the OTC credit index market," Papers 1609.04620, arXiv.org.
    3. Emmanuel Bacry & Adrian Iuga & Matthieu Lasnier & Charles-Albert Lehalle, 2014. "Market impacts and the life cycle of investors orders," Papers 1412.0217, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    4. Bence Toth & Imon Palit & Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2011. "Why is order flow so persistent?," Papers 1108.1632, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    5. A. Gareche & G. Disdier & J. Kockelkoren & J. -P. Bouchaud, 2013. "A Fokker-Planck description for the queue dynamics of large tick stocks," Papers 1304.6819, arXiv.org.

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