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Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander M. Petersen
  • Fengzhong Wang
  • Shlomo Havlin
  • H. Eugene Stanley

Abstract

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest rate change at time T, and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T) (t-T)^-$\Omega$, with $\Omega$ positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "pre-shocks" before the interest rate change at time T. This is the first study to quantitatively relate the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and to uncover the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U. S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds Effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market underreaction" that lasts at least 1 trading day.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. Petersen & Fengzhong Wang & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2009. "Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change," Papers 0903.0010, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0903.0010
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yi-Fang Liu, 2013. "Short-term Market Reaction after Trading Halts in Chinese Stock Market," Papers 1309.1138, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    2. Hu, Lunchao & Tian, Kailan & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Jiang, 2012. "The “S” curve relationship between export diversity and economic size of countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 731-739.
    3. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhang, Wei & Liu, Yi-Fang, 2014. "Short-term market reaction after trading halts in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 103-111.
    4. Assaf Almog & Ferry Besamusca & Mel MacMahon & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Oh, Gabjin & Kim, Ho-yong & Ahn, Seok-Won & Kwak, Wooseop, 2015. "Analyzing the financial crisis using the entropy density function," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 464-469.
    6. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 055, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Tang, Yong & Luo, Yong & Xiong, Jie & Zhao, Fei & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2013. "Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4435-4449.
    8. Jiang, X.F. & Chen, T.T. & Zheng, B., 2013. "Time-reversal asymmetry in financial systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5369-5375.
    9. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Xiaoyan, 2014. "The valuation of equity warrants under the fractional Vasicek process of the short-term interest rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 320-337.
    10. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Pecora, Nicolò & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2021. "Financial earthquakes: SARS-CoV-2 news shock propagation in stock and sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    11. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," Papers 1507.06477, arXiv.org.
    12. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," CARF F-Series CARF-F-366, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    13. X. F. Jiang & T. T. Chen & B. Zheng, 2013. "Time-reversal asymmetry in financial systems," Papers 1308.0669, arXiv.org.
    14. Assaf Almog & Ferry Besamusca & Mel MacMahon & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations," Papers 1504.00590, arXiv.org.
    15. Lee, Sangwook & Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Interest rates factor model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(13), pages 2531-2548.
    16. Yang, Ming-Yuan & Li, Sai-Ping & Wu, Yue & Tang, Jingtai & Ren, Fei, 2019. "Do government rescue policies reduce the market volatility after crash? Evidence from the Shanghai stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-124.
    17. Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Giacomo Bormetti & Michele Treccani & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Collective synchronization and high frequency systemic instabilities in financial markets," Papers 1505.00704, arXiv.org.

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