IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0901.3812.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Minimal Model of Financial Complexity

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Maymin

Abstract

A representative investor generates realistic and complex security price paths by following this trading strategy: if, a few ticks ago, the market asset had two consecutive upticks or two consecutive downticks, then sell, and otherwise buy. This simple, unique, and robust model is the smallest possible deterministic model of financial complexity, and its generalization leads to complex variety. Compared to a random walk, the minimal model generates time series with fatter tails and more frequent crashes, thus more closely matching the real world. It does all this without any parameter fitting.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Maymin, 2009. "The Minimal Model of Financial Complexity," Papers 0901.3812, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0901.3812
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0901.3812
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew L. Turner & Eric J. Weigel, 1992. "Daily Stock Market Volatility: 1928--1989," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1586-1609, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rui Pedro Brito & Hélder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2016. "Efficient skewness/semivariance portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 331-346, September.
    2. Rui Pedro Brito & Hélder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2016. "Efficient skewness/semivariance portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(5), pages 331-346, September.
    3. Rui Pedro Brito & Hélder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2015. "Portfolio Management With Higher Moments: The Cardinality Impact," GEMF Working Papers 2015-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Juho Kanniainen, 2009. "Can properly discounted projects follow geometric Brownian motion?," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 70(3), pages 435-450, December.
    5. Kyuho Jin & Joowon Lee & Sung Min Hong, 2021. "The Dark Side of Managing for the Long Run: Examining When Family Firms Create Value," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, March.
    6. John Randal & Peter Thomson & Martin Lally, 2004. "Non-parametric estimation of historical volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 427-440.
    7. Qiuyun Wang & Lu Liu, 2022. "Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.
    8. Rui Pedro Brito & Hélder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2015. "Portfolio Management With Higher Moments: The Cardinality Impact," GEMF Working Papers 2015-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. Georgios Mamanis, 2021. "Analyzing the Performance of a Two-Tail-Measures-Utility Multi-objective Portfolio Optimization Model," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-18, December.
    10. David Walsh & Glenn Yu-Gen Tsou, 1998. "Forecasting index volatility: sampling interval and non-trading effects," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 477-485.
    11. J. Francisco Rubio & Neal Maroney & M. Kabir Hassan, 2018. "Can Efficiency of Returns Be Considered as a Pricing Factor?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 25-54, June.
    12. Alexandros M. Goulielmos, 2015. "The Multi-faceted Character of Risk in Maritime Freight Markets (Panamax) 1996-2012," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(1-2), pages 67-86, January-M.
    13. Bernhard Nietert, 1999. "Dynamische Portfolio-Selektion unter Berücksichtigung von Kurssprüngen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(9), pages 832-866, September.
    14. Philip Z. Maymin, 2011. "The minimal model of financial complexity," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 1371-1378, February.
    15. Joro, Tarja & Na, Paul, 2006. "Portfolio performance evaluation in a mean-variance-skewness framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 446-461, November.
    16. Lee, Kangsan & Jeong, Daeyoung, 2023. "Too much is too bad: The effect of media coverage on the price volatility of cryptocurrencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0901.3812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.