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Current log-periodic view on future world market development

Author

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  • Stanislaw Drozdz
  • Jaroslaw Kwapien
  • Pawel Oswiecimka
  • Josef Speth

Abstract

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin. In the present extended version some predictions for the future oil price are incorporated. In particular a serious correction on this market is expected to start in the coming days.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislaw Drozdz & Jaroslaw Kwapien & Pawel Oswiecimka & Josef Speth, 2008. "Current log-periodic view on future world market development," Papers 0802.4043, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0802.4043
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    Cited by:

    1. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    2. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    3. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M. & Wisniewski, Tomasz P., 2015. "The gold price in times of crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 329-339.
    4. Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
    5. Paweł Oświęcimka & Stanisław Drożdż & Jarosław Kwapień & Rafał Rak, 2011. "Is It Possible to Predict Crash?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 25.
    6. David S. Br�e & Damien Challet & Pier Paolo Peirano, 2013. "Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 275-280, January.

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