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The value of information in financial markets: An agent-based simulation

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  • Bence Toth
  • Enrico Scalas

Abstract

We present results on simulations of a stock market with heterogeneous, cumulative information setup. We find a non-monotonic behaviour of traders' returns as a function of their information level. Particularly, the average informed agents underperform random traders; only the most informed agents are able to beat the market. We also study the effect of a strategy updating mechanism, when traders have the possibility of using other pieces of information than the fundamental value. These results corroborate the latter ones: it is only for the most informed player that it is rewarding to stay fundamentalist. The simulations reproduce some stylized facts of tick-by-tick stock-exchange data and globally show informational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Bence Toth & Enrico Scalas, 2007. "The value of information in financial markets: An agent-based simulation," Papers 0712.2687, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0712.2687
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0712.2687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Lux & Eleni Samanidou & Stefan Reitz (ed.), 2005. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-27296-0, October.
    2. Sunder, Shyam, 1992. "Market for Information: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 667-695, May.
    3. Kirchler, Michael & Huber, Jurgen, 2007. "Fat tails and volatility clustering in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1844-1874, June.
    4. Scalas, Enrico & Kaizoji, Taisei & Kirchler, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Tedeschi, Alessandra, 2006. "Waiting times between orders and trades in double-auction markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 463-471.
    5. Enrico Scalas & Silvano Cincotti & Christian Dose & Marco Raberto, 2005. "Fraudulent Agents in an Artificial Financial Market," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Thomas Lux & Eleni Samanidou & Stefan Reitz (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, pages 317-326, Springer.
    6. Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: A mean-variance example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-312, April.
    7. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2016. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better?," Working Papers in Economics 16/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Kirchler, Michael, 2010. "Partial knowledge is a dangerous thing - On the value of asymmetric fundamental information in asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 643-658, August.

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