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Política Monetária Ótima Em Um Contexto De Elevada Dívida Pública: O Caso Do Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • José Franco Medeiros de Morais
  • Joaquim Pinto de Andrade
  • Maria Luiza Falcão Silva

Abstract

This paper calculates the optimal monetary policy rule for Brazilian economy, assuming that monetary authority adopts a flexible inflation targeting regime in which, besides the inflation target, there is also a target for public debt/GDP ratio. According to the open economy proposed model, risk premium is generated by high public debt. After estimating the parameters, Bellman equation is applied to determine the optimal monetary policy rule. Results suggest that when a target for public debt/GDP is taken into account in the loss function, monetary policy responds less aggressively to inflation shocks, while easing monetary policy becomes optimal response to positive shocks to public debt and risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • José Franco Medeiros de Morais & Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Maria Luiza Falcão Silva, 2004. "Política Monetária Ótima Em Um Contexto De Elevada Dívida Pública: O Caso Do Brasil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 030, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:030
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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