Constant, Decreasing, Or Increasing? A Note On The Rate Of Economic Growth And Technological Progress, With A Little Bit Of History

There is substantial disagreement regarding the rate of economic growth, particularly concerning economists' perspectives on the rate of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Some envision theoretical mechanisms implying constant growth, others have recently suggested a potential secular slowdown in TFP growth, while still others foresee an acceleration of economic growth in the near future, driven by the diffusion of new technologies (Artificial Intelligence). Understanding the direction and speed of progress is critically important for planning our future. A part of the research gap is due to the limited temporal coverage of available data sources. In this article, I attempt to bridge this gap by using an alternative (and unconventional) dataset. The analysis is technically straightforward, based on a simple approach that considers learning mechanisms. Although also the dataset used here has its limitations, it allows for an empirical analysis spanning many centuries, if not millennia. The results, thus derived from a historical approach, are very clear and hold significant implications for the future. The key message is that we should expect a progressive slowdown in the rate of scientific progress, although substantial progress will continue for the next few centuries.