IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amu/wpaper/2017-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown since the mid-2000s?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Mathy
  • Daniel Kirwin

Abstract

Byrne et al. (2016) found that worldwide growth slowed down in the mid-2000s. This paper both confirms this result for the United States and looks at how forecasters responded to this slowdown in GDP growth. GDP is unambiguously and consistently below its forecasted level and so forecasts errors are persistently positive, consistent with a growth slowdown that is not forecasted in advance. In response to this slowdown, IMF and CBO forecasters adjusted their forecasts downwards while the Survey of Professional Forecasters made overoptimistic forecasts. We discuss the recent recession and its potential contribution to the current secular stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Mathy & Daniel Kirwin, 2017. "How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown since the mid-2000s?," Working Papers 2017-02, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2017-02
    DOI: 10.17606/e84t-0213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17606/e84t-0213
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17606/e84t-0213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast errors; growth slowdown; secular stagnation; hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2017-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Meal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.