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Financial frictions in a commodity exporting small open economy: the Case of Kazakhstan

Author

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  • Erlan Konebayev

    (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)

Abstract

This paper adds the banking sector to a commodity-exporting small open economy DSGE model and estimates it using the data for Kazakhstan between 2001 and 2019. The resulting model produces one-step-ahead predictions that are a good fit for the banking sector variables. We find that the oil price and risk premium shocks are the drivers of much of the economic activity in Kazakhstan - they explain a large part of the variation in most of the macro variables considered. A comparison with the baseline model that has no banking sector shows that the influence of the risk premium shock on real variables can be overestimated when financial frictions are excluded. The above-mentioned two shocks, along with the fiscal policy shock, have also significantly contributed to historical fluctuations in real GDP growth, although with no particular trend in the direction or magnitude of their effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Erlan Konebayev, 2021. "Financial frictions in a commodity exporting small open economy: the Case of Kazakhstan," NAC Analytica Working Paper 21, NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajx:wpaper:21
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Bayesian analysis; small open economy; Kazakhstan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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