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On the Relationship between Borrower and Bank risk

Author

Listed:
  • Yuliyan Mitkov

    (University of Bonn)

  • Ulrich Schüwer

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

We use tools from survival analysis to study the equilibrium probability of bank failure in a model with imperfect correlation in loan defaults where a systematic risk factor and idiosyncratic frailty factors govern borrower credit worth. We derive several surprising results: in equilibrium, a bank can be more likely to fail with less risky than with more risky borrowers. In addition, the equilibrium relationship between borrower and bank risk can be fundamentally altered by a greater dispersion of the frailty factors, similar to how mixing items of different durability can fundamentally change the overall aging pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuliyan Mitkov & Ulrich Schüwer, 2024. "On the Relationship between Borrower and Bank risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 294, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:294
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_294_2024.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    2. Saleem Bahaj & Frederic Malherbe, 2020. "The Forced Safety Effect: How Higher Capital Requirements Can Increase Bank Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3013-3053, December.
    3. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    4. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
    5. Maxim Finkelstein, 2008. "Failure Rate Modelling for Reliability and Risk," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84800-986-8, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Correlated defaults; borrower heterogeneity; bank failure; survival analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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