IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajf/louvlr/2024006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Message in a bottle: Forecasting wine prices

Author

Listed:
  • Algieri, Bernardina
  • Iania, Leonardo

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium)

  • Leccadito, Arturo
  • Meloni, Giulia

Abstract

Can we predict fine wine and alcohol prices? Yes, but it depends on the forecasting horizon. We make this point by considering the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 and 50 Indices, the retail and wholesale alcohol prices in the United States for the period going from January 1992 to March 2022. We use rich and diverse datasets of economic, survey, and financial variables as potential price drivers and adopt several combination/dimension reduction techniques to extract the most relevant determinants. We build a comprehensive set of models and compare forecast performances across different selling levels and alcohol categories. We show that it is possible to predict fine wine prices for the 2-year horizon and retail/wholesale alcohol prices at horizons ranging from 1 month to 2 years. Our findings stress the importance of including consumer survey data and macroeconomic factors, such as international economic factors and developed markets equity risk factors, to enhance the precision of predictions of retail/wholesale (fine wine) prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Algieri, Bernardina & Iania, Leonardo & Leccadito, Arturo & Meloni, Giulia, 2024. "Message in a bottle: Forecasting wine prices," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2024006, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  • Handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2024006
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/jwe.2024.3
    Note: In: Journal of Wine Economics, 2024, vol. 19, p. 64-91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liv-ex Fine Wine Indices ; alcohol retail and wholesale prices ; dimensionality reduction ; forecasting models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2024006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Séverine De Visscher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lfuclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.