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Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition

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  • Brown, John C.
  • Guinnane, Timothy W.

Abstract

The Princeton Project on the Decline of Fertility in Europe (or European Fertility Project, hereafter EFP) was carried out at Princeton University's Office of Population Research in the 1960s and 1970s. This project aimed to characterize the decline of fertility that took place in Europe during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The project's summary statements argued that social and economic forces played little role in bringing about the fertility transition. The statement stresses instead a process of innovation and diffusion. A central feature of the EFP argument is a series of statistical exercises that purport to show that changes in economic and social conditions exerted little influence on fertility. Two recent papers on Germany for this period have used similar data and methods to draw different conclusions. These findings echo those of researchers working in other contexts, who increasingly find that economic and social factors play a strong role in fertility. We show that one reason for the new findings is some general statistical problems in the Princeton methodology. These are reason to temper acceptance of the Princeton project's larger message.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, John C. & Guinnane, Timothy W., 2003. "Two Statistical Problems in the Princeton Project on the European Fertility Transition," Center Discussion Papers 28392, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:yaleeg:28392
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arland Thornton, 2001. "The developmental paradigm, reading history sideways, and family change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 449-465, November.
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    1. Marco Breschi & Alessio Fornasin & Matteo Manfredini & Lucia Pozzi & Rosella Rettaroli & Francesco Scalone, 2014. "Social and Economic Determinants of Reproductive Behavior Before the Fertility Decline. The Case of Six Italian Communities During the Nineteenth Century," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 291-315, August.
    2. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2006. "Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 727-746, November.
    3. Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017. "Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 155-170, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor and Human Capital;

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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