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Modelling to Predict Disease and Severity Using Age Specific Seroprevalence Data

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  • Ramsay, Gavin

Abstract

This paper outlines the use of modelling in animal health with an emphasis on Markov chain models. Models that have been used to predict the incidence of disease caused by B. bovis are then examined. The development of a model that enables the use of age specific seroprevalence data to estimate the incidence of clinical disease is then described. This involves the use of a method to transform the seroprevalence data to incidence risk which is incorporated into a Markov chain disease prediction model. This in turn is linked to a herd model. The model predicts the proportion of animals in each age and sex class that would be affected by different severities of disease. Using the herd model, estimates of the number of animals affected are made. The model is then used to predict disease incidence and severity for B. bovis infection as an initial step in the determination of the effects of control of B. bovis by vaccination which is examined in subsequent discussion papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramsay, Gavin, 1997. "Modelling to Predict Disease and Severity Using Age Specific Seroprevalence Data," Animal Health Economics 164584, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uqseah:164584
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164584
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/164584/files/WP33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Overview of Pigs and Poultry: Specific Livestock Industries, Livestock Diseases and Policies in Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164523, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    2. Purcell, Tim & Karunaratne, Neil & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "Macroeconomic Effects of Disease Control in the Thailand Livestock Sector - A CGE Analyis," Animal Health Economics 164581, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Ramsay, Gavin, 1997. "Assessing the Effect of Vaccination on Disease Incidence and Severity," Animal Health Economics 164585, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    4. Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "Economics of Investing in the Health of Livestock: New Insights," Animal Health Economics 164580, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    5. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "Optimal Livestock Disease Control Models and Their Possible Application to Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164566, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    6. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "Livestock and Livestock Health in Northern Thailand: A Socio-economic Analysis of a cross sectional Survey of Villlages," Animal Health Economics 164524, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    7. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Basics of CBA," Animal Health Economics 164568, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    8. Ramsay, Gavin, 1996. "Animal Health Information Systems," Animal Health Economics 164576, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    9. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "Foot and Mouth Disease: An Overview of its Global Status, Control Policies and the Thai Case," Animal Health Economics 164563, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    10. Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Assessing the Approach to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Controlling Livestock Diseases of McInerney and Others," Animal Health Economics 164425, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    11. Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "On the Economics of Maintaining the Health of Livestock with Thai Examples," Animal Health Economics 164579, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    12. Ramsay, Gavin & Harrison, Steve & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "Private Decisions in Livestock Disease Control and the Value of Additional Information about Animal Health," Animal Health Economics 164588, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    13. Harrison, Steve & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "The Role of Animal Health Programs in Economic Development," Animal Health Economics 164520, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    14. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Complexities of CBA," Animal Health Economics 164569, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    15. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Spreadsheet Implementation of Discounted Cash Flow and Risk Analysis," Animal Health Economics 164571, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    16. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "A Review of the Economics of Controlling Diseases in Livestock and the Modelling of Control Policies," Animal Health Economics 164565, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    17. Ramsay, Gavin & Tisdell, Clem & Harrison, Steve, 1997. "The Distribution of Benefits from Improved Animal Health Decision Making as a Result of the Collection of Additional Animal Health Information," Animal Health Economics 164589, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    18. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "Women and Common Property Resources in the Management and Health of Livestock in Thai Villages," Animal Health Economics 164575, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    19. Tisdell, Clem, 1994. "Animal Health and the Control of Diseases: Economic Issues with Particular Referene to a Developing Country," Animal Health Economics 164424, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    20. Tisdell, Clem & Harrison, Steve, 1995. "Livestock, the Environment and Sustainable Development with Illustrations of Issues from Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164428, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    21. Davis, Rex, 1997. "A Review of Economic Evaluations of Government Policies for the Control of Cattle Tick," Animal Health Economics 164583, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    22. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "The Thai Dairy Industry: Its Economic Evolution Raised by Land Rights and Cattle Diseases," Animal Health Economics 164582, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    23. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Animal Health Programmes and Information Systems," Animal Health Economics 164574, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    24. Davis, Rex, 1996. "An Overview of the Status of Cattle Tick Boophilus microplus in Queensland," Animal Health Economics 164564, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    25. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "An Overview of the Occurrence of FMD in Thailand and Policies for its Control," Animal Health Economics 164590, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    26. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Allowing for Project Risk in CBA," Animal Health Economics 164572, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    27. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "An Overview of Trends and Developments in the Thai Dairy Industry," Animal Health Economics 164567, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    28. Ramsay, Gavin, 1996. "Collecting Animal Health Data for Cattle Properties in Extensive Grazing Systems," Animal Health Economics 164577, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    29. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Valuation of Non-Market Costs and Benefits," Animal Health Economics 164573, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    30. Tisdell, Clem & Ramsay, Gavin, 1995. "The Economics of Vaccinating or Dosing Cattle against Disease: A Simple Linear Cost-Benefit Model with Modifications," Animal Health Economics 164426, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harrison, Steve & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "The Role of Animal Health Programs in Economic Development," Animal Health Economics 164520, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    2. Harrison, Steve, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis with Applications to Animal Health Programmes: Animal Health Programmes and Information Systems," Animal Health Economics 164574, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    3. Ramsay, Gavin & Tisdell, Clem & Harrison, Steve, 1997. "The Distribution of Benefits from Improved Animal Health Decision Making as a Result of the Collection of Additional Animal Health Information," Animal Health Economics 164589, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    4. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "The Thai Dairy Industry: Its Economic Evolution Raised by Land Rights and Cattle Diseases," Animal Health Economics 164582, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    5. Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "On the Economics of Maintaining the Health of Livestock with Thai Examples," Animal Health Economics 164579, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    6. Davis, Rex, 1996. "An Overview of the Status of Cattle Tick Boophilus microplus in Queensland," Animal Health Economics 164564, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    7. Davis, Rex, 1996. "A review and Extension of Economic Pest Control Model Incorporating Multi-Pest Species and Insect Resistance," Animal Health Economics 164525, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    8. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Overview of Pigs and Poultry: Specific Livestock Industries, Livestock Diseases and Policies in Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164523, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    9. Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Assessing the Approach to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Controlling Livestock Diseases of McInerney and Others," Animal Health Economics 164427, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    10. Ramsay, Gavin & Tisdell, Clem & Harrison, Steve, 1997. "Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of Disease Control Programs," Animal Health Economics 164587, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    11. Ramsay, Gavin, 1997. "Assessing the Effect of Vaccination on Disease Incidence and Severity," Animal Health Economics 164585, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    12. Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "Economics of Investing in the Health of Livestock: New Insights," Animal Health Economics 164580, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    13. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "Optimal Livestock Disease Control Models and Their Possible Application to Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164566, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    14. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "An Overview of Trends and Developments in the Thai Dairy Industry," Animal Health Economics 164567, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    15. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "Foot and Mouth Disease: An Overview of its Global Status, Control Policies and the Thai Case," Animal Health Economics 164563, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    16. Tisdell, Clem, 1994. "Animal Health and the Control of Diseases: Economic Issues with Particular Referene to a Developing Country," Animal Health Economics 164424, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    17. Smith, Alister & Harrison, Steve, 1997. "Recent Trends in the Production and Trade of Cattle Beef and Pigs in Thailand," Animal Health Economics 164591, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    18. Ramsay, Gavin & Harrison, Steve & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "Private Decisions in Livestock Disease Control and the Value of Additional Information about Animal Health," Animal Health Economics 164588, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    19. Ramsay, Gavin, 1997. "Calculating the Production Loss Avoided by Disease Control," Animal Health Economics 164586, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    20. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "Women and Common Property Resources in the Management and Health of Livestock in Thai Villages," Animal Health Economics 164575, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    21. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Trends in the Thai Livestock Industry, Animal Health Implications and Thailand's Development: An Introduction," Animal Health Economics 164521, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    22. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Specific Livestock Industries, Livestock Diseases and Policies in Thailand: An Overview of Bovines (Buffalo/Cattle)," Animal Health Economics 164522, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    23. Murphy, Thomas, 1996. "A Review of the Economics of Controlling Diseases in Livestock and the Modelling of Control Policies," Animal Health Economics 164565, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    24. Ramsay, Gavin, 1996. "Collecting Animal Health Data for Cattle Properties in Extensive Grazing Systems," Animal Health Economics 164577, University of Queensland, School of Economics.

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    2. Tisdell, Clem, 1995. "Assessing the Approach to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Controlling Livestock Diseases of McInerney and Others," Animal Health Economics 164425, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
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    11. Kehren, Tatjana & Tisdell, Clem, 1997. "The Thai Dairy Industry: Its Economic Evolution Raised by Land Rights and Cattle Diseases," Animal Health Economics 164582, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
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    14. Tisdell, Clem, 1994. "Animal Health and the Control of Diseases: Economic Issues with Particular Referene to a Developing Country," Animal Health Economics 164424, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
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    16. Ramsay, Gavin & Tisdell, Clem & Harrison, Steve, 1997. "The Distribution of Benefits from Improved Animal Health Decision Making as a Result of the Collection of Additional Animal Health Information," Animal Health Economics 164589, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    17. Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "On the Economics of Maintaining the Health of Livestock with Thai Examples," Animal Health Economics 164579, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
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