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Evaluating the Addition of Weather Data to Survey Data to Forecast Soybean Yields

Author

Listed:
  • McCormick, M. Denice
  • Birkett, Thomas R.

Abstract

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts surveys, during the growing season, to collect plant counts and measurements for forecasting yields of major agricultural crops such as corn, cotton, soybeans and wheat. Plot level data are aggregated to the regional (multi-state) level and used to build regression forecast models. In order to improve the accuracy of August 1 and September 1 yield forecasts, a cumulative precipitation term, indicating total precipitation from April 1 until the forecast date, was added to the models at a regional six-state level. This additional data was believed to contain information which would be helpful in crop yield forecasting. The analysis indicated that the accuracy of the regional soybean yield forecasts was not improved using this precipitation term. Additional analysis is recommended to evaluate the impact of different precipitation terms on soybean yield forecasts at the regional and state levels, and to evaluate the use of precipitation data in forecasting crop yields for corn, cotton and wheat.

Suggested Citation

  • McCormick, M. Denice & Birkett, Thomas R., 1992. "Evaluating the Addition of Weather Data to Survey Data to Forecast Soybean Yields," NASS Research Reports 323938, United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:unasrr:323938
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.323938
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/323938/files/SRB-92-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "Evaluation of "Straw Man" Model 1, the Simple Linear Model, for Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana," Staff Reports 321192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "One, Two, and Three Line Segment "Straw Man" Models: Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana," Staff Reports 321270, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. House, Carol C., 1977. "A Within-Year Growth Model Approach to Forecasting Corn Yields," Economics Statistics and Cooperative Services (ESCS) Reports 329250, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Kestle, Richard A., 1981. "Analysis of Crop Yield Trends and Development of Simple Corn and Soybean "Straw Man" Models for Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa," Staff Reports 321251, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    1. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "One, Two, and Three Line Segment "Straw Man" Models: Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana," Staff Reports 321270, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Sebaugh, Jeanne L., 1981. "Evaluation of "Straw Man" Model 1, the Simple Linear Model, for Soybean Yields in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana," Staff Reports 321192, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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