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Farm Efficiency and Insect Infestation Forecasts: The Case of Soybeans in Illinois

Author

Listed:
  • Moffitt, L. Joe
  • Farnsworth, Richard L.
  • Zavaleta, Luis R.
  • Kogan, Marcos

Abstract

A preposterior decision model and a scouting model are used to estimate the economic benefits of an area-wide soybean insect prediction system in Illinois. Results suggest forecast reliabilities of the insect prediction system must exceed 90 percent accuracy before grower profits increase and acres scouted by consultants decrease. Insecticide use, however, can increase or decrease over a range of forecast reliabilities because of the shift from insect consultants to an area-wide public supported insect prediction system. If risk averse behavior is assumed, growers will likely apply more insecticides and hence reduce forecast prediction benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Moffitt, L. Joe & Farnsworth, Richard L. & Zavaleta, Luis R. & Kogan, Marcos, 1982. "Farm Efficiency and Insect Infestation Forecasts: The Case of Soybeans in Illinois," Staff Reports 316800, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:316800
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.316800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cashman, Christopher M. & Martin, Marshall A. & McCarl, Bruce A., 1980. "Indiana Farm-Level Impacts of Possible Environmental Protection Agency Bans on Selected Soybean Insecticides," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 147-152, December.
    2. J. E. Dutt, 1976. "Numerical Aspects of Multivariate Normal Probabilities in Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 547-561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Miranowski, John A., 1979. "Integrated Pest Management In Corn Rootworm Control: A Preliminary Economic Assessment," 1979 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, Pullman, Washington 277613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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