IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278792.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiser, Harry M.
  • Riha, Susan J.
  • Wilks, Daniel S.
  • Sampath, Radha

Abstract

This report examines potential agronomic and economic effects of several assumed changedclimate scenarios on grain farming in the United States. The analysis is based on a protocol that links climatic, agronomic, and economic models to form an integrated model. Three assumed climate scenarios are investigated for their relative effects on crop yields, cropping patterns, and farm-level profitability. The climate scenarios are simulated for representative farms in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina. The agronomic results indicate that the mild climate scenario has little effect on crop yields and that farmers can effectively adapt to increasing temperatures and precipitation by selecting later maturing varieties. Corn and soybean yields are negatively affected at all sites in the more severe climatechange scenario. Northern States are less severely affected by both climate scenarios in terms of soybean yields. The economic results suggest crop prices are fairly sensitive to the rate and the form of the assumed climate-change scenario. Under the mild climate-change scenario, corn prices (inflation adjusted) increase and wheat prices decrease. Soybean prices increase, but at a lower rate than in the no climate-change case. In the more severe climate-change scenario, soybean and corn prices have the largest increase over time. Net farm revenue is lower under climate change than in the no climate-change case. However, there is little difference in net farm revenue between the mild and the severe climate-change scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Harry M. & Riha, Susan J. & Wilks, Daniel S. & Sampath, Radha, 1995. "Potential Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Agriculture," Staff Reports 278792, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278792
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278792/files/ers-report-653.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278792?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars Brink & Bruce McCarl, 1978. "The Tradeoff between Expected Return and Risk Among Cornbelt Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 259-263.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shaik, Saleem & Helmers, Glenn A., 2000. "Intertemporal And Interspatial Variability Of Climate Change On Dryland Winter Wheat Yield Trends," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21782, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rawlins, Richard B. & Bernardo, Daniel J., 1991. "Incorporating Uncertainty In The Analysis Of Optimal Beef-Forage Production Systems," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13, July.
    2. Young, Douglas & Lin, William & Pope, Rulon & Robison, Lindon & Selley, Roger, 1979. "Risk Preferences Of Agricultual Producers:Their Measurement And Use," Risk Management in Agriculture: Behavioral, Managerial, and Policy Issues, January 25-26, 1979, San Francisco, California 271459, Regional Research Projects > W-149: An Economic Evaluation of Managing Market Risks in Agriculture.
    3. Adrien Hervouet & Marc Baudry, 2011. "Promoting innovation in the seed market and biodiversity: the role of IPRs and commercialization rules," Post-Print hal-02012239, HAL.
    4. Hammida, Mustapha & Eidman, Vernon R., 1991. "Livestock And Poultry Production Risk In The United States," Staff Papers 14016, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    5. Lien, Gudbrand, 2002. "Non-parametric estimation of decision makers' risk aversion," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 75-83, May.
    6. Bechtel, Amos I. & Young, Douglas L., 1999. "The Importance Of Using Farm Level Risk Estimates In Crp Enrollment Decisions," 1999 Annual Meeting, July 11-14, 1999, Fargo, ND 35717, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. van Zyl, J. & Groenewald, J. A., 1986. "A Comparison Of Certain Decision-Making Techniques Under Risk - An Empirical Investigation Of Maize Cultivar Selection," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 25(1), February.
    8. Louhichi, Kamel & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco Fonseca, Maria, 2009. "A generic template for FSSIM," Reports 57463, Wageningen University, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling; Linking European Science and Society.
    9. Musser, Wesley N. & Shurley, W. D. & Williams, F. W., 1980. "An E-V Analysis of Beef Calf Backgrounding Systems in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 37-42, December.
    10. Marra, Michele & Pannell, David J. & Abadi Ghadim, Amir, 2003. "The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 215-234.
    11. Soule, Meredith J. & Nimon, R. Wesley & Mullarkey, Daniel J., 2001. "Risk Management And The Environment: Impacts At The Intensive And Extensive Margins," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20670, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Dörschner, T. & Mußhoff, O., 2014. "Does the Risk Attitude Influence and Farmers’ Willingness to Participate in Agri-Environmental Measures? – A Normative Approach to Evaluate Ecosystem Services," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 49, March.
    13. Kehkha, Ahmad Ali & Mohammadi, Gholamreza Soltani & Villano, Renato A., 2005. "Agricultural Risk Analysis in the Fars Province of Iran: A Risk-Programming Approach," Working Papers 12897, University of New England, School of Economics.
    14. Shurley, W. Donald & Patrick, George F., 1981. "Farm Planning, Risk Aversion, And The Returns To On-Farm Storage Facilities," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279457, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Adams, Richard M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Woolery, Bruce A., 1980. "Alternative Parameter Specification In E, V Analysis: Implications For Farm Level Decision Making," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, July.
    16. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil, 2008. "Differential uncertainties and risk attitudes between conventional and organic producers: the case of Spanish arable crop farmers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 219-229, September.
    17. Peterson, Jeffrey M. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2001. "Designing Nonpoint Source Policies With Limited Information About Both Risk Attitudes and Production Technology," Working Papers 127661, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    18. Musser, Wesley N., 1994. "Progress In Risk Analysis In Regional Projects," 1994 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses Risk, Technical Committee Meeting, March 24-26, 1994, Gulf Shores State Park, Alabama 271553, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    19. Chien, Ming-Che & Leatham, David J., 1994. "The Value Of Planting Flexibility Provisions In The 1990 Farm Bill To Three Representative Texas Farms," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, July.
    20. Osaki, Mauro & Batalha, Mário Otavio, 2014. "Optimization model of agricultural production system in grain farms under risk, in Sorriso, Brazil," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 178-188.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.