Revision of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Nonreal Estate Farm Debt Series, 1962-75

Report Summary: Estimates of farm debt were lowered substantially by a revision of the I&O component of the nonreal estate debt series. The estimate for January 1, 1975, of I&O debt was revised downward by $10.6 billion, from $16.7 billion to $6.1 billion. Total nonreal estate debt on January 1, 1975, was estimated at $35.2 billion, and with real estate debt unchanged at $46.3 billion, total farm debt was estimated at $81.5 billion; previously it had been $92.2 billion. The I&O sources include mainly retail sellers of farm machinery and other products, individuals, farmer cooperatives, and institutional lenders not elsewhere classified. On the revised basis, I&O debt on January 1, 1976, is estimated at $6.4 billion and total nonreal estate debt at $39.4 billion; with real estate debt of $50.9 billion, total farm debt, excluding Commodity Credit loans, is estimated at $90.3 billion. The I&O revision followed appraisal of information provided by two Bureau of the Census surveys of farm debt—as of January 1, 1971, and June 30, 1966. The I&O figure had not been revised since the establishment of a benchmark estimate for January 1, 1961, based on the Bureau of the Census debt survey of that date. Review of the 1966 survey data indicated the Census I&O figures were not greatly different from existing USDA estimates and no benchmark revision was made at that time. However, the 1971 Census survey showed that much larger differences had developed. Thus, benchmark revisions were made for January 1, 1971, and January 1, 1967, and changes were prorated back to 1961. Estimates are quite tentative for years after 1971 and will remain so until results of the 1974 Census of Agriculture become available and are analyzed. Figures for 1971 and 1975 are shown in table 1.