AGREP Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program; International Rice Outlook; International Rice Baseline Projections, 2017-2027

This outlook contains updated baseline rice projections for U.S. and international rice economies as of January 2018. The purpose of this document is to present the current state and the expected directions of the rice economies in the world by assessing their potential supply and demand paths over the next decade. This set of projections serves as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. The estimates are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and other stakeholders who conduct medium- and long-term planning. The baseline projections are generated by the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP); and are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is assumed that current agricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other countries included in this study. Projections in this outlook are based on the information available as of January 2018. In light of the volatility of the global rice economy, a stochastic analysis is included in this report to provide a better understanding of the probable distribution of future outcomes. The stochastic estimates establish the likely upper and lower bounds for selected variables, which serve as indications of inherent risks associated with the global rice economy. The authors acknowledge and appreciate the collaboration with the team at FAPRI-MU based at the University of Missouri in Columbia; but take full responsibility for any remaining errors in this document.